2. A simple exponential smoothing forecast (using a 0.7 as the smoothing factor) is ran for the above data. The resulting one-period ahead forecast is reported in the following table. Quarter | Unemployment rate | Forecast (?-0.7) Year 1974 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.6 6.9 7.2 7.2 5.4 5.33 5.31 5.51 6.48 6.99 2 4 1975 b. Estimate the unemployment rates in the fourth quarter of 1975 and the first quarter of 1976 using the above method (exponential smoothing forecast with a-0.7) c. Compare the accuracy of the above forecasts (3-period moving average and exponential smoothing with a-0.7) using Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Squared Deviation criteria Which method would you suggest based on these criteria? Would you recommend changing the parameters of the selected method (explain why or why not)? If you could choose a more sophisticated forecasting method for the above data, which method would you recommend? Do not perform any calculation but try to justify your point by a discussion d.
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